U.S. Consumer Behavior Over the Postwar Period: An Almost Ideal Demand System Analysis
نویسندگان
چکیده
FOREWORD This study analyzes U.S. consumer budget allocations among 11 agg1 egate commodity groups for the period 1948-78. Also budget allocations among four food groups are analyzed for this same period. Several alternative model specifications are analyzed. Emphasis is given to the Deaton-Muellbauer (1980a) "almost ideal demand system." A dynamic version of their model is developed and quantified. Comparison of the static and dynamic formulations are compared with similar specifications of the "linear expenditure system." The predictive performance of these four models for the 11 commodity groups is tested for the sample period (1948-78) and for the years 1979-81. The purpose of this study was to develop improved methods for analyzing demand relationships for food and other goods. The results for the dynamic or habit formation specifications appear promising, although no completely satisfactory results for all goods are claimed. The authors thank Kathy Edgington for computational assistance. They also appreciate very much the useful comments of three anonymous reviewers. Their comments enabled us to avoid some mistakes contained in an earlier version. The authors are, of course, responsible for any remaining errors.
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